Will Ortagus’s challenge reshape Lebanese power?

The formation of a new Lebanese government remains stalled, facing internal disagreements and external pressures.

The primary sticking point is the appointment of the fifth Shiite minister, a matter of contention between Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. This impasse has effectively put the government formation process on hold.

Adding to the complexity, US Deputy Envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, delivered a message to President Michel Aoun, calling for the exclusion of Hezbollah from the new government.

This demand has raised questions about the scope of US involvement and whether it signals a broader reshaping of the political landscape.

While the Presidential media office downplayed Ortagus’s comments, Salam is reportedly seeking a resolution to the current deadlock.

The delay has hampered President Aoun’s efforts to engage regionally and internationally, despite the initial positive reception to his election.

The formation of a government aligned with the hopes expressed in his inaugural address and Salam’s post-designation statements is seen as crucial for progress.

While the dispute over the fifth minister’s appointment continues, mediation efforts are underway.

Former Progressive Socialist Party leader, Walid Jumblatt, has reportedly initiated contact between Salam and Berri, with MP Wael Abu Faour acting as an envoy. A proposed candidate, Nasser Al-Saeedi, reportedly declined the nomination.

Sources indicate that Salam and Aoun are committed to forming a full-fledged government capable of addressing the nation’s challenges.

They are reportedly aiming for a government that can secure international and Arab support, seen as essential for lifting the existing international and Arab “siege” on Lebanon.

However, this goal is complicated by the US demand to exclude Hezbollah, raising questions about Lebanon’s ability to navigate these competing pressures.

The situation is further complicated by the need to address the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of non-state actors. This issue remains a significant point of contention, particularly concerning Hezbollah’s role.

Ortagus’s visit and her strongly worded message are seen as a clear indication of the US position, not only on its own behalf, but also reflecting the concerns of other international actors, including Arab and European nations.

The future of Lebanon’s government and its ability to secure international support appears to hinge on how these internal and external pressures are managed.