Russian influence in Libya at risk after loss of Syrian bases

Russia’s military presence in Libya faces severe challenges following the loss of its strategic bases in Syria, according to a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The US-based think tank warns that the collapse of Russian facilities in Syria will critically disrupt Moscow’s ability to maintain its military operations in Libya, where it has sought to establish significant influence in recent years.

The loss of the naval base in Tartus, Syria, threatens to sever a vital logistics chain that Russia has relied upon to sustain its Africa Corps operations in Libya, the institute reports. This strategic setback comes at a crucial time when Russia has been attempting to strengthen its foothold in the North African nation.

While Russia might attempt to establish direct bases in Libya as an alternative, the ISW notes that this faces significant obstacles. “The lack of formal agreements with Libya and inadequate infrastructure make it an unsuitable replacement for the lost Syrian facilities,” the assessment states.

The institute’s analysis suggests that without the Syrian bases serving as a springboard, Russia will struggle to maintain its current level of military presence in Libya, affecting everything from personnel rotation to equipment maintenance and resupply operations.

“Russia’s diminished capability to project power from the eastern Mediterranean will particularly impact its ability to support operations in Libya,” the ISW concludes, noting that this setback could significantly reduce Moscow’s influence in North Africa at a time when several powers are competing for influence in the region.