Russia Eyes Libya Bases as Syrian Foothold Weakens

RUSSIA IS ACTIVELY developing military installations in Libya as concerns mount over the potential collapse of its strategic Mediterranean base in Syria, according to a confidential analysis obtained by Africa Confidential.

The Paris-based intelligence publication reveals Moscow has accelerated military expansion at Libya’s Brak al-Shati and al-Jufra airbases, marking a significant shift in Russian strategy in North Africa.

The developments come as analysts warn that Bashar al-Assad’s weakening grip on power in Syria could threaten Russia’s naval facility at Tartus – a critical logistics hub for Kremlin operations across North Africa.

At al-Jufra, intelligence sources have identified Wagner Group mercenaries conducting training operations for forces aligned with General Khalifa Haftar’s eastern Libya command, according to the leaked report. The private military company’s presence signals deepening Russian involvement in Libya’s fractured political landscape.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, reviewing classified intelligence, assesses Libya as Russia’s prime target for establishing new military bases as part of a broader strategy to forge fresh geopolitical alliances across Africa.

EUROPEAN OFFICIALS are particularly concerned that expanded Russian military presence in Libya could enable Moscow to disrupt vital energy supply routes. The move threatens to derail diplomatic efforts to reconcile the competing governments in Tripoli and Benghazi.

“This represents a significant escalation in Russia’s power projection capabilities in the Mediterranean,” a Western intelligence source told Africa Confidential, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The revelations underscore Moscow’s determination to maintain strategic depth in North Africa, even as its traditional stronghold in Syria shows signs of vulnerability.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​