Gaza deaths could be 40% above official numbers

Fresh research published in The Lancet has unveiled that Palestinian authorities likely missed counting two in every five deaths during the initial nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Gaza’s healthcare system crumbled under intense bombardment.

The groundbreaking study, peer-reviewed and conducted by prestigious institutions including the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Yale University, employed sophisticated statistical methods to assess the true human cost of the conflict.

Using capture-recapture analysis, a technique previously deployed in war-torn regions like Kosovo and Sudan, researchers calculated a staggering 64,260 deaths from traumatic injuries between October 2023 and June 2024. This figure towers approximately 41% above the Palestinian Health Ministry’s official count.

Most troublingly, the study highlighted that nearly 60% of the casualties were amongst society’s most vulnerable—women, children and the elderly. The official Palestinian death toll had previously stood at 46,000 from Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.1 million.

When confronted with these findings, a senior Israeli official defended their military conduct, stating: “No other army in the world has ever taken such wide-ranging measures”. The official insisted their forces implemented extensive precautions, including advance warnings and safe zones, arguing that “the figures provided in this report do not reflect the situation on the ground”.

The conflict erupted after Hamas militants launched an unprecedented attack on 7 October, claiming 1,200 Israeli lives and seizing over 250 hostages, according to Israeli records.

Researchers discovered that whilst the Palestinian health ministry’s electronic death recording system had previously proved reliable, it deteriorated significantly under Israeli military operations. These included raids on medical facilities and widespread disruption to digital communications infrastructure.

The study’s methodology drew upon multiple data sources, including official health ministry records, an online survey distributed to Palestinians both within and outside Gaza, and social media obituaries. “Our research reveals a stark reality: the true scale of traumatic injury deaths in Gaza is higher than reported”, said lead author Zeina Jamaluddine.

Dr Paul Spiegel, from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, endorsed the study’s statistical approach whilst noting it focused solely on traumatic injuries, excluding deaths from indirect causes such as collapsed health services and poor sanitation.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics suggests the toll could be even higher, with approximately 11,000 Palestinians missing and presumed dead. The agency reports that Gaza’s population has plummeted by 6% since the conflict began, with roughly 100,000 Palestinians fleeing the territory.