No war is coming to Libya and here is why

On 9 August, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) published a statement warning of a potential war in the country. The Mission, mediating reconciliation efforts in the country, pointed out that “recent mobilization of forces in various parts of Libya, particularly in the southern and western regions” could lead to clashes in the divided country.

In a separate statement on the same day, the European Union Delegation to Libya, said it was “concerned” about “the recent military mobilisation and movements, notably in the south-western region”—a border triangle with Algeria, Tunisia and Libya.

What caused UNSMIL’s and EU’s concerns was the recent Libyan National Army (LNA), led by the eastern region’s strongman, Khalifa Haftar out of Benghazi, taking positions in south-western areas near the border with Algeria. Going by previous experiences, both the UN and the Europeans interpreted that as being part of probable preparations to attack Tripoli because, back in 2019, Mr. Haftar’s forces did the same in their failed 13-month campaign to take the capital.

This time, though, it appears that Mr. Haftar is not interested in repeating that same episode. All he wanted, according to his younger son, Saddam, who commands the troops in the region, was to “secure” areas under his control in a drive to “patrol and secure the borders”. Haftar Junior is also in charge of the entire LNA ground troops in the entire southern regions, all the way to the triangle of borders between Libya, Sudan and Egypt in the south-east. LNA actually controls Al-Kufra oasis, the route to Sudan from where hundreds of refugees have been arriving since the war broke out there last year. His forces have also gained control of the Chad-Libya border area after heavy clashes with Chadian opposition groups.

Since LNA forces did not attempt to take Ghadames, the city near the Algerian border, nor its airport, is a strong indication that Mr. Haftar is not in the mood for another war and it is also indicative that the UN 2020 ceasefire still, technically, applies. Even the fighting on the Chad border region does not constitute a breach of the ceasefire, since such clashes only involved “illegal” foreign forces whose departure from Libya is a requirement of that ceasefire deal negotiated by UNSMIL four years ago.

Therefore military movement manoeuvres and limited mobilisation, as indicators of potential war, are weak and do not necessarily mean war is on the cards. Besides all such activities on the ground, so far, do not support the inevitability of war since their small size and, above all, in terms of time and logistics, seem insignificant to be seen as preparation for war.

But, as is usually the case, military clashes in Libya happen in pursuit of political ends one party wants to achieve in mid- and long-term strategies of vying for control of more territories.

Politically speaking, the crisis over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), in Tripoli, might provide reason for another round of fighting, given the Bank’s importance. It is the only source of money and the central coffers of cash flow from oil exports which make the biggest share of the country’s revenue. This has convinced many commentators, supporting different sides, to think war is on the cards. They contend that the political stalemate prevailing in the country was waiting for a trigger to explode and the CBL issue provided that trigger. They also point out that the entire conflict in Libya is about power and wealth, of which CBL is the primary source.

However, UNSMIL have, so far, prevented the crisis from spilling over into military confrontation, without entirely solving the problem. While Mr. Haftar is not openly part of the CBL problem, he is not part of the solution either. However, he has contributed to making a bad situation even worse when he responded to the Bank crisis by shutting down oil production, making the economic fallout of the CBL crisis even worse, as the country’s oil exports fell by 81 per cent from two weeks ago. As far as the CBL crisis is concerned, all parties seem to prefer a politically negotiated solution rather than one forced by guns.

Another indicator that war is not coming is the fact that the eastern administration, including Mr. Haftar, appears interested in reconstruction more than destruction. On 5 September, the General himself, the Speaker of Parliament, Agila Saleh, and the Parliament appointed Prime Minister, Osma Hamad, attended a conferenceinaugurating reconstruction in development in Sebha, the capital of the south. A few days later, Sebha was hit by flooding, as if nature wanted to emphasize the importance of reconstruction and development.

Mr. Haftar is eager to further prove himself as being in control in the south and seriously pursuing an agenda of building the long neglected southern region, after his success in reconstructing most of the areas devastated by last year’s flooding in the eastern region. Almost the entire city of Derna, the hardest hit by Storm Daniel on 10 September, 2023, has been rebuilt, thanks to LNA help—a significant achievement for Haftar.

Another sign that war is far away is that foreigners with stakes in Libya appear to be in the mood for peace, not war. Regional powers, Egypt and Turkiye, have just re-established their diplomatic and political relations after President Al-Sisi visited Ankara and met with his old foe, President Erdogan. Both countries support different sides in the Libyan crisis and nearly fought each other back in 2020. After years of animosity, they have realised they can agree on many things while disagreeing on others, including on Libya. However, as they seem to disagree on the Libyan file, they are not willing to support their Libyan friends to engage in violence—at least for the foreseeable future. They prefer to wait for UNSMIL’s next step and the position the White House will take after the American November elections—the US is another major foreign meddler in Libya’s mess.

Neither the local politicians nor the international and regional meddlers in Libya want another devastating conflict at this time. All sides have concluded, as it seems, that wars never solve the bigger Libyan problems, while none of them have any consensual solution to the 13 years’ conflict incited by foreigners and perpetuated by local selfish politicians.

The good thing in all this is that ordinary Libyans can look forward to another year without war. However, this does not automatically mean that their once stable, secure and prosperous country is within reach.